Maybulk 2009 1Q Report

令人惊讶的业绩，也终于明白为什么 Chairman 选择在季报出炉之前卖股。长话短说，先看看数据:





















EBITDA Margin 只有 4%，真的是超级低，甚至比 complete 还差，还好 profit margin 里有 POSH 的帮补，还可以维持很高的赚利。可以看到投资 POSH 绝对是一个很不错的选择，如果少了 POSH 这笔钱，Maybulk 的 EPS 将会是负数。

再看看负债和现金:

注明: 不好意思，之前忘记放 Title。第一个 Column 是 2008 4Q 的数据，而第二个 column 是 2009 1Q 的。
















可以看到 Receivable 减少了，也是说很多欠帐收回了，而 Cash 就增加了少少。Payables 方面也减少了一半，这是好事，至少管理层没有不还债。现金方面还保持一样，没有什么问题。

再来就是 Cash flow 方面，可以看到 Cash Flow From Operating Activities 已经是负数了，代表业务已经出事了，过后我会放出 Segment result，里面可以看得一清而楚。






Maybulk 主要的三个业务都下跌了 80% 以上，Bulk Shipping 尤其来得差。虽然我预测 2009 1Q 肯定很差，可是这样的业绩真的大跌眼镜，几乎到了没有生意的边缘。这真的很让我忧心。

"The severe fall in freight rates, lower hire days (as a result of reduced fleet size) and reduced chartered-in activities, all add to the decline in revenue."

这个风暴真的对运输业打击很大，几乎像是全球的需求量都没有了一样。可是深入想想也不是，因为 POSH 还是有很稳定的赚幅，那到底为什么 Maybulk 会出事呢? 我真的不知道，这也是我其中一个疑问。

前景:

"The MBC Group, together with its partners, has acquired a 6 years old, 53,553 dwt supramax in April 2009. Plans are in the works for another 70% owned subsidiary to acquire a 3 years old,
32,400 dwt handy-sized. Additionally, we have reported last year that we have four new dry bulk carriers on long term time charters (with purchase options) that will be delivered in 2010 into 2013."

这样差的经济和业绩，Maybulk 最让我担心的是如何运用剩下的 8 亿，看到文告中提到，管理层已经开始买船，而且 2010 到 2013 有四艘新船到来。看来管理层预测 2010 年经济将开始复苏，所以现在就行动了。如果经济复苏了，我相信 Maybulk 将会带来很稳定的盈利。

我还有另一个疑问，这样差的业绩，可是 Maybulk 股价居然稳如泰山，真的很奇怪，难道 EPF 真的有这种能耐?

无论如何，我还是设定了低过 RM 3 我才开始买进。

注明: 我的资料只供参考，我不对任何看了我的文章进行买卖的亏损负责任，买卖自负。

Maybulk 的 shareholder change

今天翻看 Maybulk 的 shareholder change，4 月里全部都是 EPF。看看 EPF 这个月里对Maybulk 的买卖。几乎都是在买，而且只是卖出一小部分。

Acquired 16/04/2009 1,000,000
Acquired 15/04/2009 1,000,000
Acquired 14/04/2009 895,900
Acquired 13/04/2009 775,500
Acquired 10/04/2009 2,000,000
Acquired 09/04/2009 996,100
Acquired 07/04/2009 200,000
Disposed 07/04/2009 338,300
Acquired 08/04/2009 500,000
Disposed 08/04/2009 252,000
Acquired 06/04/2009 1,000,000
Acquired 03/04/2009 1,000,000
Disposed 02/04/2009 1,000,000
Acquired 01/04/2009 61,500
Disposed 01/04/2009 600,000

再看看 Maybulk 的股价和成交量，当股价去到 RM 3.20 以上时，EPF 每天都提供一半以上的成交量，真的是功不可没。

Date Open Close Change Volume
10-Apr-09 3.28 3.26 -0.040 3,584,800
13-Apr-09 3.26 3.26 0.000 1,173,100
14-Apr-09 3.26 3.28 0.020 1,353,200
15-Apr-09 3.28 3.24 -0.040 1,847,100
16-Apr-09 3.26 3.20 -0.040 1,844,900

我看不只 Maybulk，应该很多蓝筹股 EPF 都帮助不少。真的是要谢谢他把股价抬高，让我不能在低价买进。

致网友的疑问 (Maybulk):

"这是我刚在Maybank的3rdparty analaysis里看到Maybulk的大买卖。Teo Joo Kim在3月18-25日之间卖了1，721，250shares，EPF在3月13-23日之间卖了1，088，000shares，还有Dato Capt. Ahmad Sufian @ Qurnain bin Abdul Rashid在3月16-17日之间卖了30，000shares哦。"

基本上，上市公司的董事们卖股我们是不知道原因的。我们只是可以假设的估计他们为什么这样做。

Teo Joo Kim 卖股，我之前有假设这位 67 岁的老人家需要钱用，所以卖股也很合理。

Dato Capt. Ahmad Sufian 卖股，他拥有 740,000 股 (18/3 卖 30，000 股 和 16/3 卖 20，000)。卖股的数量很小，我觉得他是在高价套现，留意看看他会不会在低价是买回就知道了。也有另一个可能，他也是缺钱用。

至于 EPF，这点不用多说，你留意看看 EPF 如何买卖其他股票就知道了。EPF 一贯的技巧，买卖股票赚取差价。

不过在这样短的时间有两个董事卖股，看来他们可能知道一些我们不知道的秘密，也或者他们知道股价将回调。无论如何，我们只可以假设的猜想。。。

只要大股东没有卖，我还是很放心。

Review for Maybulk Q4 2008 Report

营业额从 2007 的 608,142 到 2008 的 721,158，可是 EPS 却退步了从前期的 54.46 sen 到 46.09 sen。主要的原因是 Operating expenses 里加入了 charter-hire paid ，还有减少了船只的关系.....

Overall operating expenses which include vessel operating expenses (RM124.1m) and charter-hire paid (RM258.2m) increased by 67.2%, year-on-year to RM382.4m. FY2008 reported increased charter-in activities which in FY2007 were only RM88.2m.

On a year-on-year comparison, vessel operating expenses decreased by 12% from RM140.5m in FY2007 to RM124.1m in FY2008. The lower operating expenses are largely due to the reduced fleet, 2 dry-bulks and a chemical tanker was sold during the year.

季报里头有提到 charter-hire paid (RM258.2m) ，我不是很清楚这是什么，不过 vessel 的 operating expenses 确实是减少了，其中一个原因是因为卖了 2 dry-bulks and a chemical tanker 的关系。


现金流

Net cash generated from operating activities 342,049
Net cash generated from/(used in) investing activities ( 241,037)
Net cash used in financing activities ( 417,039)

Investing activities 出现了负数，因为里面加入了买 POSH 的钱 。

从 Cash flow statement 看来

FCF = 342，049 - 241，037
= 101，012

应该还属于正常的现金流水平。

Subscription of shares in associate company ( 792,167)

The Group had, on 16 December 2008, subscribed for 34 million new ordinary shares of Pacc Offshore Services Holdings Pte
Ltd ("POSH"), representing about 21% of the paid up share capital of POSH as at year end, for a consideration of USD221 million.

现金:
Cash & Cash equivalents comprise:
Short term deposits 791,696 9 88,783
Cash and bank balances 13,875 38,163
805,571 1 ,026,946

2007 = RM 1,026,946,000
2008 = RM 805,571,000

Bank and other borrowings 3 56,635 3 42,810
Bank and other borrowings 7 ,346 6 ,589

负债:
2007 = RM 349,399,000
2008 = RM 363,981,000

现金 - 负债 = RM 805,571,000 - RM 363,981,000
= RM 441,590,000

还完全部负债，Maybulk 还有 4 亿的现金，感觉还不错。。。。


股息:

In respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2008, an interim gross dividend of 10.00 sen per ordinary share comprising 7.50 sen less 26% income tax and 2.50 sen tax exempt was paid on 25 September 2008.

The Board recommends a final single tier dividend of 30 sen per share, amounting to RM300 million for the financial year ended 31 December 2008.

如果以现在的股价:

Price : RM 2.770 (25-02-2009)

DY = ((0.075 x 0.74 x 1000) + 25 + 300) /
= RM 380.5 / 2770
= 13.74%

哇，将高。。。我有没有算错。。。。single tier 应该是不用扣税了的。。。应该没算错。。。不过 2009 就没那么高的股息了。。。从 Maybulk 管理层回馈股东的股息看来，应该都不错。。。


卖船:

"Gain on disposal of vessels ( 327,305) (167,389)"

"the Group completed the disposal of its 25 year old Alam Sempurna in January 2009 for a very modest gain of RM8.1m."

"In November 2008, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company entered into an agreement to dispose of its vessel Alam Sempurna to a third party for a consideration of USD3.85 million. The sale was completed in January 2009."

我找不到这搜船的买入价，在这个时候卖船，到底是好事还是坏事?

从这季的季报看来，Maybulk 并没有使我失望，还做得很好。2009 年应该是 Maybulk 很艰辛的一年，财报应该也很糟糕，然而这将会提供我买进的机会。