Wednesday, March 21, 2012

清谈 Golden Land Berhad (7382)


公司历史:

Today

GOLDEN LAND BHD owns 9414 hectares of oil palm plantation land bank and operates a Palm Oil Mill with a production capacity of 60 metric tones of Fresh Fruit Bunches per hour at Labuk Sugut district, Sabah.

2009

Tanah Emas Corporation Berhad is now known as Golden Land Berhad.

2002

The corporate proposals were completed and the principal activities of the company were transformed into that of cultivating of oil palm, processing of crude palm oil and palm kernel and the plantation lands were located at Labuk Sugut District, Sabah, Malaysia. The name of the company was then changed to TECB.

1999

TECB undertook a debts restructuring scheme proposal by acquiring six oil palm plantation companies measuring approximately 5,964 Hectares of plantation land and disposed off its existing critical environment businesses.

1996

Changed its name to Isuta Holdings Berhad ("Isuta") in conjunction with its listing exercise. Isuta was listed on the 2nd Board of the Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad ("Bursa") on 1st of April, 1996

1994

Tanah Emas Corporation Berhad ("TECB") was incorporated in Malaysia as a Private Limited Company under the name of Epic Manufacturing Sdn Bhd.

The principal activities of the Group were manufacturing and trading of critical environment supplies/equipment, rubber products and packing materials for medical. It involved in manufacturing of critical environment products for pharmaceutical industries.

From: http://www.glbhd.com/history.html

2001 年期间,公司曾经被列入 PN 4 行列,财务状况也非常糟糕,过后经过了重组,业绩才开始有了改善。


公司结构:


请看: http://www.glbhd.com/corpsturcture.html


或者: Annual Report 2011 page 2


公司业务:

Oil Palm Plantation & Palm Oil Mill

Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB), Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Palm Kernel (PK) are our Group’s primary products. The Company’s own plantations supply approximately 39% of the FFB processed by the company, with the balance supplied by more than 200 small to large sized estates.


Palm Oil Mill

To add value onto oil palm cultivation, the Group erected a crude palm oil mill located at Telupid, 110 KM off Sandakan, Sabah. In order to cope with the increase of FFB supplies, the Group expanded its milling capacity with an annual milling capacity of 360,000 metric tonnes. The produced quality crude palm oil and palm kernel are dispatched to local refinery mills for further processing.


Estate

Our Group started oil palm cultivation since 1986 with land areas of approximately 82 hectare. Today, we own 9414 hectares of oil palm plantation land at Labuk Sugut district, Sabah.

Our Group has 7 well-managed estates with planted areas amounted to 7,814 hectares. Of this, 6,867 hectares are matured, with the remaining 947 hectares immature and 614 hectares are under development.

From: http://www.glbhd.com/core.html

这是从 Golden Land 网站得来的资料,不是最新的,地库的资料可以看看 2011 年年报或下面的 资产或价值评估”


年报摘要:












季报摘要:







2010 2Q NTA 大增是因为土地被重估。

2010 4Q 的盈利是 negative 是因为有 impairment loss,详情可以翻查相关季报。

公司发展与前景:

每年的年报,在 Chairman statement Corporate Development 里都会谈到将来或在进行着的发展计划,只要细心阅读,不难得到公司来年的发展目标,现在让我们看看 2011 年里所提到的事项。

During the financial year, Yapidmas Plantation Sdn. Bhd.,a wholly-owned subsidiary, entered into Sub-Lease Agreements with third parties for the lease of 48 parcels of land totalling 235.65 hectares for a total consideration of RM5.6 million. As a result of the acquisitions of the above lands, the Group’s land bank increased to 9,683 hectares of which 8,337 hectares are planted with oil palm.

购买新土地的消息,翻看几年的年报,几乎每年都会有购地的消息。

On 8 March 2011, Pacific Bloom Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary, entered into an Agency Agreement with Virtus Communications Pte. Ltd. and Mr. Mohan irugmanasam Bandam, for the application of the economic concession rights over approximately 10,922 hectares of land located in Dang Peng Commune, Sre Ambel District, Koh Kong Province from the Royal Government of Cambodia for agricultural investment purposes.

On 9 March 2011, Gainfield International Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary, entered into an Agency Agreement with Virtus Communications Pte. Ltd. and Mr. Mohan Tirugmanasam Bandam, for the application of the economic concession rights over approximately 11,827 hectares of land located in Dang Peng Commune, Sre Ambel District, Koh Kong Province from the Royal Government of Cambodia for agricultural investment purposes. As of today, no material development has arisen on the applications for these concessions.

以上两个是 Golden Land 在柬埔寨申请农业地的消息,这个不懂是好消息还是坏消息,有待查证管理层的意图和方向,不过,从这个消息看来,可能这些土地是政府资助的所以不用钱的,哈哈哈。

On 16 August 2011, Absolute Synergy Limited, a whollyowned subsidiary, entered into a Conditional Sale and Purchase Agreement for the acquisition of 500 fully paid-up shares of Rp250,000 each in PT Sumber Bumi Serasi (“SBS”) for a maximum purchase consideration of Rp26,530,200,000. SBS has obtained the Izin Lokasi for the total land area of approximately 4,913 hectares located at Sangkulirang District, East Kalimantan. The proposed acquisition is expected to complete within 12 months from the date of the Agreement.

这是另一个好消息,Golden Land 开始在发展到印尼。

另外值得注意的是年报里的CEO Review of Operations,那里也是我们得到咨询的重要地方。

其中一个咨询:

The Group has increased the amount of planted area by 523 hectares, ending the financial year with 8,337 hectares of planted land. Out of this total planted area, 7,049 hectares are mature while the remaining 1,288 hectares are immature. Our plans are to develop an additional 276 hectares next financial year.

从这个咨询中我们可以得知今年 2012 年将会增加 276 hectares 有种植油棕的土地。

总的来说,Golden Land 每年都在成长着,虽然速度不是那么快,但是确实是有在成长。

网站的咨询不太多,公司也蛮低调,可幸的是在年报和季报里管理层都有交代当年的发展和运作,也有提到来年的方向。

所以只要每年细心观察年报,不难发现公司的动向。


股息政策:


2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

DPS (Gross)

2.00

5.00

0.00

2.00

3.00

DPS (Net)

1.46

5.00

0.00

2.00

3.00

Dividend payout %

30.67%

27.87%

0.00%

56.18%

19.72%

Golden Land 没有固定的股息政策,自 97 风暴以后,Golden Land 进入了重组计划,业务也从生产转向种植油棕,在这个过程里,公司一直面临亏损的状况,直到 2007 年财务才有了转变,所以 2006 之前没有股息可是情有可原。到了 2007 年,公司的业绩转亏为盈,管理层也开始了派息,可见管理层并没有忽略股东。

2009 年,世界再次面对金融风暴,基于危机不明朗,所以管理层撤消了准备的派息,这个可以从 2009 年年报的 Chairman statement 里读到,管理层也解释了这个决定:

From Annual Report 2009 Page 4:

Previously, The Board recommended a first and final single tiered dividend of 5 cents per share, amounting to RM10,998,214 for the financial year ended 30th June 2008, for the approval of all shareholders at the Annual General Meeting.

However, this resolution was reconsidered in the 14th Annual General Meeting due to the economic downturn and the drastic decline in Crude Palm Oil prices. This consideration was paramount as it helped the Group to retain its cash position to maintain operations and business expansion opportunities. The Directors do not recommend the payment of the dividend for the financial year ended 30th June 2009.

预测 2012 年的股息与 Dividend Yield:

2012 Half Year EPS = 10.95 sens

保守的估计后半年将得到 8 sens EPS (一个 Quarter 4 sens),那 2012 年的预测 EPS 18.95 sens,我们拿一个整数 19 sens。以公司历年来的派息记录,20% 30% Dividend payout ratio属于合理水平:

Dividend = 19 sens x 20% = 3.8 sens ( 我们也拿一个整数 4 sens)

DY = 0.04 / 1.22 = 3.28%

3.28% DY 不算高也不算低,至少比 FD 还来的高。

管理层评估:

看完我整份报告应该心中有数了,所以在这里不多写了,哈哈哈。


资产或价值评估:

根据 2011 年年报和 2012 2Q 季报的资料:

No of share (unit)

216,507,000

Share price (RM) at 20-03-2011

1.22

Market capital (RM)

264,138,540

Title

Hectares

Acres

Total land

9,683

23,927.21

Planted

8,337

20,601.18

Unplanted Land

1,346

3,326.04

Mature tree

7,049

17418.46

Immature tree

1,288

3182.717

Golden Land 大部分土地在 Labuk/Sugut, Sabah

Price per acre for Total land = Market capital / Total land

= RM 264,138,540 / 23,927.21 acres

= RM 11,039

最简单的计算方式,算出来 1 acre 地要 RM 11k 左右,让我们进入更深入的计算方式。

2012 2nd Quarterly 里可以拿到最新的 Biological Assets = RM 227,156,000. Biological asset 也就是油棕树,现在我要计算没有油棕树的土地值得多少钱。

Price per acre of land = (Market Capital – Biological asset) / Total land

(without palm tree) = RM 1,546

这是一个非常惊讶的数字,相同在 Sabah 的油棕地,CEPAT 可是叫价 RM 6k ,有些公司甚至叫价两万以上,而 Golden Land 才卖 RM 1.5k,而且,这个 RM 1.5k 还包括 Golden Land 的其他资产,难以置信,我还在怀疑我有没有算错,哈哈哈。

好了,现在来计算油棕树的价钱:

Palm tree price per acre = Biological asset / Planted land

= RM 11,026

加上之前土地的价钱,也就是 RM 11,026 + RM1,500,现在 Golden Land有油棕的地价为 RM 12,526

这个价钱是否便宜,我想每个人心中的尺都不一样吧。

看完了地价,是时候看看产量了,2011 年的产量是 136,600 metric tons.

FFB Yield per hectares = FFB Production figure / planted land

= 136,600 / 8,337

= 16.385 metric tons

单看这个数字是不合格的,如果我没记错,大马的平均 Yield 21 左右,所以低过这个数字是不合格的。

让我们看回公司的历史,公司创办于 1994 年,当时的业务为生产与贸易 (可以看回以上的 “公司历史”)。过后遇到金融风暴,公司陷入危机,到了 1999 年,公司尝试重组,那个时候也被列入了 PN4,财务糟糕得恐怖。

经过了一轮的重组,公司重生了,业务也从之前的生产与贸易转变为油棕种植公司,重点来了,Golden Land 2002 年开始油棕业务的,看看 2002 年报里的 Chairman statement:

“The Group has 1,760 hectares of plantation land with immature oil palm and 790 hectares of plantable reserve.”

2002 年时的油棕树龄还未成熟,还有已种植的地库也只有区区的 1760 hectares,所以我估计现在 Golden Land 大部分的油棕树树龄都还很小,应该也刚刚进入成熟期而已, Golden Land 未来几年的产量应该还会增加。

另外要看的是,2002 年的地库在 2,550 hectares,到了今天,地库已经增加到 9,683 这个数字还未加入刚购入的印尼地库 4,913 hectares,还有在 Cambodia 的农地地库 22,749 hectares)。

由此可以看到管理层积极的增加地库,虽然不是很大规模的增加,但是也属于有成长,不错。

IJM Plantation 也有一部分地库在 Labuk, Sabah,叫价两万以上,有兴趣的朋友不妨去看看。)



财务评估:

看完了地库资料,现在要看看资产,负债资料:

Trade receivable ('000)

19,932

Trade payable ('000)

17,769



Long term borrowing ('000)

79,692

Short term borrowing ('000)

43,345



Cash ('000)

95,539

Cash per share (Sens)

0.44



D/E

0.44

D/A

0.31

Current ratio

2.19

NTA

1.99



Trade receivable Trade payables 很相近时,我多数不太理会这个数字了,现在看看负债和现金。

总欠款 = Long term borrowing + Short term borrowing

= RM 123,037,000

现金 = RM 95,539,000

总贷款 现金 = RM 27,498,000

也不少,那我们不能忽略这个数字了,让我来算算每 acre 的贷款是多少:

Borrowings per acre = (Total borrowings – Cash ) / Total land

= RM 1,149

以上算到有油棕的土地是:RM 12,526

加入负债,现在是:RM 12,526 + RM 1,149 = RM 13,675

贵?便宜?自己想想吧,哈哈哈。

再看 NTA

Golden Land 的资产在 2009 12 月重新评估了,目前的 NTA RM 1.992010 年和 2011 年,马来西亚的土地和产业像飙车一样狂飞,所以我觉得 RM 1.99 NTA 不太准确,现在的 NTA 应该在 RM 2 以上。

从股价 < NTA,土地的计算,还有其资料,个人觉得Golden Land 属于被低估的行列之中,值得跟进和观察。

再谈 PE

“股息政策” 那里我们得到预测的 EPS 19 sens,现在我们再次需要用到这个数据。

PE = Share price / Estimate EPS

= 1.22 / 0.19

= 6.42


股东评估:

大股东一共有两位,他们是:

YAP PHING CERN

Direct (units) : 53,111,711

Direct (%) : 24.55

Indirect/deemed interest (units): 3,757,972

Indirect/deemed interest (%): 1.74

Date of notice : 15/03/2012

Mr. Yap Golden Land 的大股东,也是这间公司的掌舵人,从资料显示,Golden Land 的创办人应该是他父亲 Mr. Yap KiewMr. Yap Phing Cern 应该是第二代接班人。

在公司重组的时候,Mr. Yap Phing Cern Mr Yap Kiew 的股权变动可是多得可怕,详情可以看看 Bursa Malaysia Changes in Shareholdings

重组公司是否需要那么多的股权变动?

这我不敢肯定,但是 2002 年以来,Golden Land 曾经是出名的炒股,股价一度上过 RM 7,至于 Mr Yap 们有没有参与,我们外人也难以得知,但是有一点可以看到的是,2008 年后,Mr Yap 父子的股权变动并不大,再从业绩看来,他们也属于勤于自己的生意的人。

基于 Golden Land 有过这样的历史,所以我们要密切留意这间公司的股权变动,避免成了羊鼓也不知道。

OH KIM SUN

Indirect/deemed interest (units): 50,871,600

Indirect/deemed interest (%): 23.52

Total no of securities after change: 54,460,700

Date of notice : 20/01/2012

Mr. Oh 是透过AGROMATE HOLDINGS SDN BHD 持有 Golden Land 的股权。

Agromate 是在 23/11/2010 开始累积 Golden Land 的股票,从 Changes in shareholdings 里的资料,我有理由相信是 Mr Lim Cher Seng 将他手上的股票卖给 AgromateMr Lim 也是 Golden Land 这几年来的大股东之一,是特大那种股东,哈哈哈。至于 Mr Lim Agromate 有没有关系我就不得而知了。

股权的增加也把 Mr Oh 带进了董事局,Mr Oh 28 July 2011 年正式被委任为 Golden Land Non-independent Non-executive director

不要小看 Agromate Holdings,它可是马来西亚肥料供应商的龙头之一。

Agromate Holdings Sdn. Bhd. has been growing from strength to strength since it began operations in 1979. Today, it is one of the key players in Malaysia's fertilizer industry, underpinned by rapid expansion in crop production in plantation crops such as oil palm, rubber, cocoa and as well as in cash crops.

From: http://agromate.com.my/index.htm

Agromate (M) Sdn. Bhd. is one of Malaysia's biggest importers, distributors and wholesalers of fertilizer with over 25 years of experience in supplying a complete range of top quality fertilizers specifically to the oil palm, rubber and cocoa plantations both locally and overseas.

Today we are supplying close to 25% of the total fertilizer requirements in Malaysia. Our strong logistic presence, together with the blending and storage facilities provided in every strategic location, make excellent ground work for us in catering to all our customers' needs throughout Malaysia.

From: http://agromate.com.my/agromate.htm

Agromate 供应了马来西亚 25% 的肥料,有了 Agromate 的加入,Golden Land 可以说是如虎添翼。

现在让我有点奇怪了,那么强的公司为什么对 Golden Land 这种小公司有兴趣呢?如果只是要投资,那也不需要进入董事局。

这无疑让我想到几种可能性 (以下是阴谋论,看看就好):

1. Agromate 只是想做 Golden Land 的策略性伙伴,提供肥料和专业意见给 Golden Land,互惠互利,能卖肥料给 Golden Land 赚钱,Golden Land 赚钱了也能进入自己的账目。

2. 把肥料业务也纳入 Golden Land 里,来个借壳上市,那不但能集资,也能有现成的油棕地。

3. 可能 Golden Land 也想发展肥料业务,打算透过 Agromate 来达成。

4. 。。。。。。

5. 。。。。。。

哈哈哈,无论如何,能得到 Agromate 的相助,我想 Golden Land 在肥料成本方面应该有了优势。

风险评估:

如一般的油棕股,Crude Palm Oil 是公司盈利的关键。

另外一个要注意的就是公司的股权变动,如果公司的管理层不务正业,而专注在炒股上,那这个公司就可以放弃了。


原文请看: http://www.mediafire.com/?kbydt0hn8vic235

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