Friday, February 1, 2013

清谈 Hua Yang (5062)

公司历史:

Hua Yang Berhad (Hua Yang) started with a man's passion and dream, the late Mr. Ho Mok Heng, who had a vision of a developing country. We started on December 28th, 1978 with a private limited company under the name of Heng Po Sdn Bhd. Later it was changed to Hua Yang Development Sdn Bhd on March 10th, 1979. From there, Hua Yang established a solid reputation as a trustworthy, responsible and reliable developer. After years of significant growth and expansion, the name was changed to simply Hua Yang Sdn Bhd on September 4th, 2001. Very soon after, we were listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia on November 29th, 2002 and took our present name on September 12th, 2001.

Hua Yang's principal activities consist of investment holding, property development and provision of management services. Its subsidiary companies currently are involved in investment holding, provision of management services, property development and building construction.

The property development activities of the Hua Yang Group are currently being undertaken on their land bank which are located mainly in Klang Valley, Perak and Johor.

From: http://www.huayang.com.my/about_overview.html

华阳,是在 1978年创办于Mr. Ho Mok Heng,当时成立的华阳业务只有在霹雳州 (Perak)的怡保,过后才陆陆续续扩展到其他地区,目前除了在霹雳,华阳还有业务在雪隆区,柔佛和芙蓉。

华阳的中心概念是:

“Building affordable house for people”

中文版既是说,兴建人民能负担的房产。

以国家的定义,能负担的房产介于 RM 9 万 到 RM 40 万,华阳这三十年来就是不断地朝向这个方向前进,这也是创办人Ho Mok Heng 理念。


公司业务:

公司业务分为两个:

1.    兴建和售卖房产

On-Going Project
a.        ONE South – Seri Kembangan, Selangor
b.        Senawang Link -- Seremban
c.        Bandar Universiti Seri Iskandar -- Perak
d.        Taman Pulai Indah -- Johor
e.        Taman Pulai Hijauan – Johor

Future Project

a.    Shah Alam    

Hua Yang's wholly-owned unit Prop Park Sdn Bhd has won an auction bid to acquire a 1.5ha tract in Shah Alam for RM13 million cash, it announced on June 20. The purchase price translates into slightly less than RM80 psf for the leasehold land. Hua Yang intends to develop the site into a mixed-use commercial and residential development of 470 units with an estimated gross development value (GDV) of RM175 million. The land is near Stadium Shah Alam and Laman Seri Business Centre and is easily accessible via Guthrie Corridor, Jalan Sungai Buloh and the Federal Highway.

b.    Desa Pandan

Hua Yang has acquired 1.55 acres of prime land in Desa Pandan Commercial Centre. The piece of land is strategically located just opposite the Royal Selangor Golf Club and minutes away from Jalan Tun Razak, Jalan Imbi, Jalan Ampang and several highways such as MRR2, Maju Expressway, KL – Seremban Highway via the SMART Tunnel and the Ampang Elevated Highway. It plans to develop the land into a mixed serviced apartment and commercial centre with a gross development value of RM160mil. “This is part of our operations in the Klang Valley, with our developments in Sungai Besi, Selayang and now, Kuala Lumpur City Centre,” said Ho Wen Yan, chief executive officer of Hua Yang Berhad.

2.    出租房产

a.    Oasis BU 4 -- Bandar Utama
b.    Oasis BU 11 – Bandar Utama
c.    Oasis 9 -- Shah Alam


管理层评估:

华阳是Ho Mok Heng 1978 年所创办,屈指一算也已经有了 35 的历史,到了29-11-2002 ,华阳上市于大马股市。

基于华阳之前没有上市,报导的新闻也不多,所以我也难以找到 1978 2002 之间的资料。
看了华阳上市的 IPO Propectus和历年来的年报后,我有理由相信,当创办人Ho Mok Heng 去世后,他的太太CHEW PO SIM 开始为自己的孩子铺路,希望自己的孩子能接手丈夫的企业,但,孩子还很小,所以唯有委托丈夫的弟弟回来帮忙,也就是 2003 2009 年的 CEO HO MOOK LEONG

过后孩子HO WEN YAN 毕业了,也开始有了一些经验,他们就安排他进入公司里不同的职位来吸取经验。

2007 年,HO WEN YAN 被提升为Chief Operating Officer,他开始物色有潜质的地皮,也在 2008 年购入了在 Serdang 一块 16.65 acres 的地,这个就是现在的 One South

到了 2010 年,他正式接手他老爸的生意,被提升为 CEOHO MOOK LEONG 也退了下来,做一个董事罢了。

2010 2012 年,HO WEN YAN 成功把华阳推向另一个高峰,创造出华阳历史以来的最高盈利记录,他不忘老爸的理念,希望华阳能成为在大马最出色的地产商 (以人民能负担的房屋为主)。

透过他的眼光,华阳开始步入另一个阶段,但,目前就面对地库不足的情况,所以,华阳必须要不断地购地来提升地库,这同时也增加了公司的债务,我认为HO WEN YAN 未来的几年除了要留意发展的进度之外,另一个他需要关注和处理的就是负债。

至于他能不能有效率的控制负债,以负债来推动华阳的成长? 这,拭目以待吧。

以下是 2012 年年报里关于他的一些资料:

HO WEN YAN 何文渊)
Chief Executive Officer /Executive Director

Aged 38, Malaysian, was appointed to the Board of Hua Yang on 1 June 2007. He received his architectural training in the United Kingdom at the University of Bath and the Architectural Association. He also holds a Masters of Science (Construction Economics and Management) Degree from University College London. He began his career in the architectural practice in London with PARAMETA Architects, having also done short technical attachments with Chua Ka Seng & Partners in Singapore during his semester breaks.

He joined Hua Yang on 20 October 2003 as a Project Coordinator at its Johor Branch and within a year was promoted to oversee the Johor Branch operations as the Branch Manager. With improvement seen in the performance of the Johor Branch operations under his leadership, Mr. Ho Wen Yan was appointed as General Manager in April 2006 and subsequently on 1 June 2007 was promoted to the position of Chief Operating Officer and Executive Director. He was later promoted to the position of Chief Executive Officer on 20 August 2010, succeeding Mr. Ho Mook Leong.


年报摘要:
























自从何文 2010 年接手后,华阳的业绩和盈利都有了明显的增长,同时,购地也导致了负债增加,所以,负债比率将会是我们将来要密切关注的事项。

 
季报摘要:

















2013 1 月,华阳宣布购买一块位于 Puchong 29.2058 acres的地皮,这将会贷款RM 118.5 million 来购买,我就试试简单的计算一下华阳最新的负债比率 D/E

Bursa Announcement:

Reference is made to the announcement made on 8 October 2012 by AmInvestment Bank Berhad on behalf of the Company in relation to the proposed acquisition by Bison Holdings Sdn. Bhd. (“Bison”) a wholly owned subsidiary of Hua Yang, of five (5) vacant plots of leasehold land measuring in aggregate approximately 29.2058 acres located within Mukim and District of Petaling, State of Selangor Darul Ehsan from Mentari Hari Sdn. Bhd. for a consideration of RM158.0 million.

The Board of Directors of HYB is pleased to inform that Bison has been granted the following credit facilities from a local bank to finance part  the purchase consideration :
Term Loan  RM78.5 million
Revolving Credit  RM40 million

Total    RM118.5 million

The Term Loan facility is made available for a period of 8 years.

This announcement is dated 7 January 2013.

目前:

Total liabilities = RM 166,934,000
Shareholder equity = RM 327,285,000

新的负债;

Total liabilities = RM 166,934,000 + RM 118,500,000= RM 285,434,000

D/E= Total liabilties / shareholder equity
      = RM 285,434,000 / RM 327,285,000
      = 0.87

这是我粗略的计算,确实数字要等下一个季报才会知道。

以负债来推动成长是好事,但,如果驾驭不好就会翻车。

当负债来到一定的高度时,要解决有三个方法,或者有更多的方法,我想到的是:

1. 未来赚取更多的钱来减低负债
2. Private placement 来集资
3. right issues 来集

方案 1 是最好的,因为属于以盈利推动业绩的方法,不过我们猜测也无用 这个问题就让小何来烦吧。


公司发展与前景:














以上资料是从 2012 年年报取得,然后再加上最近收购的 Puchong 地段。

经过了十多年的发展,华阳的地库已经逐渐减少,从数据上可以看到,这十年来的地库已经减少了一半。

地库,一直都是产业公司的命脉,如果在早期购入很多优质地皮,那以后的业绩机会很亮丽,因为最重要的成本已经降低了。

没有了地库的产业公司就有如没有年轻树龄的油棕公司一样,最重要的摇钱树没有了。

这就是产业世界的规则,所以,很多产业公司都会设定一个很远的目标,比如说现在就开始购入十年后要发展的地库,那么十年后就不用担心了。

那,华阳的管理层到底有没有这个远见和能力?

这还有待观察,但,华阳的理念是 “兴建人民负担得起的房”,要推动这个理念,那么收购地皮就有一定的难度。




以上是在 IPO 招股书的 Page 70 找到,这也可以解释为什么那么多年华阳的地库都不怎么增加,因为要配合那么多条件下才能购买土地并不是那么容易,这相当考管理层的能力。
以目前的地库来看,华阳未来几年的发展都不成问题,但,如果要长远成长式的发展,那就得在这几年增加有潜质的地库,不然华阳就难以成长。


华阳的目标

看看 2012 年年报里的一段 Chairman statement.
Our goal is to achieve a revenue of RM500 million in FY 2014. With 30 years of experience, and our corporate mission geared towards affordable housing, we have full confidence that our affordable products will continue to fare well.

基于近年来经济的不稳定,个别行业受影响的幅度又难以控制,所以通常管理层都不会在年报里提及一些未来的营业额或盈利数字,顶多也只是说未来盈利将提升之类的话,但,华阳居然在 2012 年年报里明确的说明 2014 年要达到 RM 500 Million 的营业额,看来华阳是信心十足啊,那,我们就简单的推算,看看她有没有可能实现。






2010 年以来,公司每年都大概增长 RM 1 亿左右,现在 2013 年已经完成了 3 个季度:

Revenue

2013 1Q = RM 97,964,000
2013 2Q = RM 103,704,000           
2013 3Q = RM 104,604,000

Total 3 quarter revenue = RM 306,272,000

我想加入了 4Q 后,RM 4 亿的营业额应该不难达到。

过了 2013 年的 4 亿,再来就是 2014 年的 5 亿。

根据 2013 3Q 季报,现在华阳有 RM 5 亿的Unbilled sales

With the strong total unbilled sales of RM 506.24 million, the Group expect to achieve better earnings for the remaining period of FY 2013.

基于季报里并没有说明这个 Unbilled sales 是分给那个年份的,不过我们可以估计是供未来两三年用的,因为一间公寓的兴建限期只有 3 年。

Unbilled sales 加上将要推出的  Desa Pandan Shah Alam,还有 Puchong 的发展,我想华阳要在 2014 年达到 5 亿应该不难。

p/s:  何文渊也在报刊上提及华阳要在 2018 年达到 8 亿的营业额。



股息政策:





华阳并没有指定的股息政策,但是,何文渊曾经对报刊说过公司一般上将会把盈利的 25% 到股息派发给股东。

"We don't have a fixed dividend policy but typically we return up to 25 per cent of net profit back to shareholders,"

既然知道了 Minimum Payout ratio,那就试试预测未来的股息。

2013 Profit
1Q = RM 16,470,000
2Q = RM 17,060,000
3Q = RM 19,934,000

Total 3 quarter profit = RM 53,464,000
Estimate 2013 profit = (RM 53,464,000 /3) x 4 = RM 71,285,333
Total shares = 198,000,000

Estimate 2013 EPS = RM 71,285,333 / 198,000,000 = 36 sens

如果 Payout 25%,Dividend = 9 sens
如果 Payout 30%,Dividend =  10.8 sens
如果 Payout 40%,Dividend =  14.4 sens
如果 Payout 50%,Dividend =  18 sens

31.01.2013股价为 = RM 1.62

就以最少的 25% payout 来计算 DY:

DY = RM 0.09 / RM 1.62 = 5.55%

哈,另一个轻松就能打败 FD 的公司。


资产或价值评估:
  
华阳的 List of properties 并没有放出 Revaluation Date,所以我也无法知道年报里的 Book Value 是不是最新的,我只能从 Commence of Development 那里下手,理应每次 Commence 发展前都应该重估土地的价值。

从这个方向去推断,目前华阳也有一些地是被低估的,但,不会很多,所以我也不去计算重估的NTA了。

2013 3Q季报的NTA RM 1.65,以 NTA 的角度来看,华阳的价值基本上已经放映在股价上,就算有被低估,也只是少许。

注:NTA 衡量法是以公司的资产为考量所做出的衡量标准

既然看了 NTA 也顺便看看 PE 吧。

Estimate 2013 EPS = RM 71,285,333 / 198,000,000 = 36 sens
31.01.2013股价为 = RM 1.62

PE  = 1.62 / 0.36 = 4.5

被低估?

其实,PE 真正的用途是给我们知道我们投入的钱,多少年能够回本 (以公司的盈利做考量)。

4.5 年能回本,这,相当不错。

华阳有没有被低估我不敢说,但,可以肯定的是她被市场忽略了。




红股:

自从小何接管华阳后,他频密的发出红股,看来他也蛮懂资本游戏,发红股,实际上我们并没有任何直接的好处,因为红股只是另一个形式的分股,但,发红股,往往会引起投资者的注意,同时,股数增加后也能使到流通量增加。

看看华阳的红股历史:






2010 开始,几乎是每年发一次,那 2013 年可能再发吗?

让我来算算。

Par value = RM 1
NTA = RM 1.65 ( 2013 3Q 季报的资料)

Bonus issues value = RM  1.65 - RM 1 = RM 0.65

华阳还有 RM 0.65 能用于发红股。

为了简单计算,我把 RM 0.65 RM 0.60

Bonus issues = RM 0.60 / RM 1 = 60 sens / 100 sens = 3/5

以目前华阳的财务状况,她还能发 5 3 红股,那,大家拭目以待吧。

华阳上市于 29-11-2002IPO 价为 RM 1.75,反正有空,让我来算算如果从上市投资 1000 股,到现在增值了多少。








这是还为加入股息的,如果加入股息肯定不止这个数字,不过,这是历史数据,最重要的还是公司往后的发展。


注明:我的资料只供参考,我不对任何看了我的文章而进行买卖的亏损负责任,要知道,买卖自负