QL Resource: Review on 2008 3rd Report

上个星期，我翻看 QL 的 2008 3rd 季报。在这里大概放出我的看法:

MPM = Marine Products Manufacturing (海产业)
POA = Palm Oil Activites (棕油业)
ILF = Integrated Livestock Farming (家畜业)

MPM (RM '000)
Revenue = 79,622
Profit before tax = 10,839
Profit Margin = 13.61%

POA (RM '000)
Revenue = 46,600
Profit before tax = 2,944
Profit Margin = 6.32%

ILF (RM '000)
Revenue = 196,362
Profit before tax = 14,771
Profit Margin = 7.52%

从这里看得出 QL 最赚钱的是海产业，而占营业额最大的是家畜业。棕油也是 QL 3 年前刚投资的新行业，从季报看来，这个行业并不是做的很好，Profit Margin 也很低。

QL 的业务前景:

海产业 = 去年已开始发展到新加坡和印尼，有望广大盈利
家畜业 = 发展到越南，据报告，越南的需求最少比马来西亚大一倍。
棕油业 = 2009 年到 2010 年，在印尼的油棕开始有收成，预料将带入客观的盈利


QL 的担忧:

(RM'000)
Net Cash from operating activities: 73,368
Net CAsh used in investing activities: - 93,893

CFC = - 20,525

Trade receiables: 124,232 (32 days)
Other receiables: 65,550
Inventories: 146,194 (45 days)

Long term borrowings: 127,708
Payables: 75,954
Short term borrowings: 269,394
Cash and cash equivalents 40,435

Short term borrowings 里面有 219,580 是 BA。

我看 BA (Bank Acceptance):

这是我去年 4 月写信问 QL 关于为什么 BA 突然增加:

"Debtors collection period increased by 10days as Trade debtors has asked for longer payment periods due to increased in unit cost value of raw materials especially animal feed raw materials like corn & soyabean meal. Correspondingly, BA borrowings would also increased as more is needed to finance the import of raw materials as compared to 9 months back."

从这里看到 BA 的增加是因为要增加进口原料。如果原料用得其所，又卖到好价钱，就会提供很好的盈利。原料用来生产，QL 的业务有用到原料应该是家畜业，而原料应该就是饲料。看看 QL 有没有能力还这笔 BA，就得看他的 Trade receiable 和 Inventories。

Trade receiables: 124,232 (32 days)
Other receiables: 65,550
Inventories: 146,194 (45 days)

加起来的话，QL 确实有能力还这笔 BA。不过里面充满了不稳定因素，假如 QL 收不回欠账和存货没办法销售出去，那 QL 就惨了。只有区区的 4 千万现金将把 QL 弄得一团糟。QL 很努力的维持双位数成长，可能就是这个原因，把 QL 的 Cash Flow 弄得不稳定。这也是我认为 QL 唯一的风险。